The Obscurer

Category: Politics

Not A Number

I was quite busy over the weekend, but other than the apparent rugby scrum of government ministers straining to condemn the hanging of Saddam Hussein (and which I feel far too world weary about to comment upon) one news story in particular caught my attention.

It was the discovery that the Prison Service doesn’t know how many inmates have absconded from open prisons. This has prompted condemnation from the media and opposition parties who say it provides further evidence that the Home Office – and Prison Service in particular – is a shambles.

Now, that well may be true, for all sorts of reasons, but my reading of this story is somewhat different. In fact all we have discovered is that the Prison Service doesn’t keep a centrally-based up-to-the-minute record of the number of absconders, and so were unable to provide precise figures to the BBC when they enquired earlier in the week. The details of current absconders are held at the local level and passed onto the police, but not aggregated at a national level because that would serve no practical purpose. However, in response to the furore, resources will be set aside to provide a central database; not to improve the running of the service but in order to accurately field media enquiries.

So what’s the point? If the Prison Service doesn’t feel the need for the data presumably they won’t refer to it and so it will be a waste of everyone’s time. I must admit, I can’t imagine it will be that difficult to find out the total number of current absconders – surely you just contact each local department for their latest figures and do a bit of addition – but if it is that easy why don’t we let the media do it for themselves, if they are really that bothered.

The main upshot of the whole affair is likely to be the creation of another time-consuming project to provide another pointless statistic leading to another distorting centralised government target that will distract the service from the actual job in hand.

Progress.

Suggestion Box

Before he became an irritating twerp on Sky Sports, Rob McCaffrey was an irritating twerp on Granada TV, playing third fiddle to Elton Welsby and Clive Tyldesley on such shows as Kick Off and Granada Soccer Night. One day he was walking through the centre of Manchester when my mate Mark drove past in his car. Instinctively, Mark wound down his window and hurled a lump of pate in McCaffrey’s direction; tragically it landed harmlessly on the pavement some distance from its target, but the thought was there. Why pate? I suppose Mark had to think quick, knowing he was never going to be presented with such an open goal again, and he could only work with what was at hand. Let’s hope it was just something like Tesco’s own Ardennes, and not Selfridges’ Fois Gras.

So? Well I was reminded of this incident when I think I heard on News North West this morning that “Herr Doktor” John Reid is to be in Manchester today, acting up; I say “I think I heard” because I only ever half listen to the local news. When he was here for the Labour party conference the other month there was a massive police operation that closed off the whole of the city centre around the G-Mex, Midland Hotel and old Free Trade Hall; but they can’t be spending £4m on security this time around, not for that twat. This then has got to be my best chance of throwing something amusing right in his grinning face.

And it must be amusing; not boring, like paint, or with a message, such as a DVD of 28 Days Later. I don’t mind if it is harmless or potentially deadly, so long as it isn’t dull or predictable. I am looking for silly.

But what? My wife suggested a “meatball marinara” sub from Subway, foot-long; but that seems like a waste of a good sandwich. My son thought of “balls…purple and green and lellow…made of wood” which could certainly do some damage but are not especially funny in themselves. I am finding it difficult to think beyond pate myself, although I also quite like the idea of dropping an acme anvil from a great height – say the new Beethams Tower – like in a cartoon. That idea still needs some work though; perhaps I’ll watch my son’s Tom And Jerry DVD’s for inspiration.

I’m stuck really, so I’m passing it over to you; fitting the criteria outlined above, what should I try to chuck at John Reid today? Chop chop now, he’s not going to be here all day. The winner will be awarded an exciting prize; the respect of their peers.

Flag Day

Perhaps it’s just me, but I can’t read about this, without thinking of this…

Update 30/10/06: Just found this video, which was the inspiration for the Simpsons parody. You may find it interesting, you may not.

Pigeons Plot In Secrecy

I don’t know about you, but this whole Tony Blair succession thing has been a right fucking yawn. Whatever the political correspondents may say this is hardly 1990, when Michael Heseltine broke cover to drag Margaret Thatcher down the steps and out of 10 Downing Street while she kicked and bit the whole way. This time around Blair has openly stated that he is going soon and we are pretty sure we know who will replace him as PM; what we don’t know is exactly when this will all take place, but does it really matter?

However, Charles Clarke’s interventions have made the whole situation far more entertaining. Attacking Gordon Brown in the Evening Standard he stated that Brown’s recent behaviour had been “absolutely stupid”; that he could have stopped the recent infighting “with a click of his fingers”, that he must “prove his fitness” to lead and that there are “little incidences like the grin in the car (when leaving after a chat with Blair to discuss the handover) that build up a terrible picture” of Brown.

I think personally that we have reached a pretty sad state of affairs when someone can get criticised for smiling, while I haven’t exactly noticed Blair slapping down his supporters for criticising Brown recently; and if Clarke really is so appalled by political plotting, what does he think it looks like when he runs to the Standard and then the Telegraph to launch attacks on Brown (after he promised, promised, whilst slagging of the knobbish John Reid a few months back, that he would retire from public life after the World Cup)?

It all reminds me less of the Heseltine-Thatcher squabble, which amounted to open warfare, than the guerrilla-like campaign that surrounded Michael Portillo when he ran for the Tory leadership in 2001. At the time the papers were full of accusations that Portillo was a ruthless and malevolent schemer who would spin and dissemble, who would stand aloof while he released his attack dogs to savage any opposition, who would trample on anyone who got in his way. I thought at the time that it was curious that for someone who was supposedly such a master of the dark arts we only saw negative portrayals of him in the press, while his opponents, Ken Clark and Iain Duncan Smith, went about unscathed. Either the press ignored Portillo’s efforts, or they weren’t effective, or in fact he was the subject rather than the originator of a smear campaign.

Similarly, listening to a phone-in yesterday on Five Live, the majority of the listeners subscribed to the view of Brown as a shifty and bitter malcontent disloyally plotting Blair’s downfall. As Brown hasn’t openly acted in any such manner you can only imagine people have come to this opinion from reading the papers; but is this because Brown has actually been plotting, or is it because, as with Portillo, he is in fact the victim of an insidious and effective propaganda campaign; contrariwise?

I’m not seeking to defend Gordon Brown here, I don’t really know what he is up to and I care less; I don’t give a shit about such Westminster Village bollocks. He may well be plotting and spinning day and night for all I know; but I can’t help thinking that surely the best schemer is the one you don’t think is scheming, who appears to be genuinely above it all? And with that in mind, lest we forget that however many faults Tony Blair can lay claim to (and oh, let me count the ways), he has proven time and again that he is the consummate politician, without peer.

Immigrant Song

I was never entirely convinced by the Tories’ conversion to “green” policies, so it was encouraging that with their “Damian Green” policy they sounded like they were right back on track.
I’m talking about them talking about immigration, of course, and it is always fun to revisit the subject, especially in the light of the twattish John Reid stating that “we have to get away from this daft so-called politically correct notion that anybody who wants to talk about immigration is somehow a racist.” He is right, of course – I’m talking about immigration right now – but I think it is also valid to say that often, when people complain about immigration, racist is indeed exactly what they are.

Times change. Not that long ago all asylum seekers were castigated as bogus felons who were really just economic migrants. Now the bandwagon has moved on and everyone is having a pop at the economic migrants themselves, especially in the light of Romania and Bulgaria’s impending accession into the EU.

The figures from the Home Office regarding the number of migrants from the recent accession countries certainly appear to have caused a stir (perhaps 600,000 rather than the expected 15,000), but why? If you feel there is a problem with immigrants, what difference do the actual numbers make? If you think foreigners are causing you a problem, then were you to discover that in fact only 500 Poles had entered the country that would be irrelevant. Similarly, if you feel that we have absorbed recent migrants brilliantly, if it were revealed that in reality over 5 million have entered the country it still shouldn’t matter. What is the right number of immigrants anyway? Don’t ask because no one can answer, save for a few hard-line racists who tend towards the zero figure.

Recent complaints from places such as Southampton and Slough have made the point that recent arrivals have put a strain upon public services. But have they? Latest figures show that 94% of recent immigrants are working and paying taxes to provide for those services, quite possibly paying additional bus and train fares for empty seats on public transport while “native Brits” (copyright Laban Tall) sit in their cars. But Manchester too has recently complained that the large increase in the city’s population since the last census is not reflected in the grant they receive from central government, but their increase is largely a result of internal migration rather than an influx of foreigners, due to increased housing in the city centre. If local government grants don’t take account of recent population increases, then that is a fault in the formula in funding local services rather than with immigration per se. What’s the difference in essence?

What about the complaint that recent migrants depress the wages of, say, plumbers? Apart from the fact that evidence for this is often thin on the ground, are we saying that plumbers should be a protected profession where their supply is limited so that the rest of us have to take a day off work for the pleasure of waiting in all day for a plumber to fail to turn up, and then pay an artificially exorbitant call out charge when he finally does arrive? Perhaps while we are at it we should cut the number of places at college for trainee plumbers so we can further cement the existing plumbers’ market power? I don’t think so.

But regarding immigration, things have been getting a little bit weird. Traditionally the “left” have favoured immigration, while the “right” have largely opposed it; but recently, certain bloggers’ favourite whipping girl Polly Toynbee has been arguing against open borders within the EU, as has the well-respected Labour MP Frank Field (I say well-respected, I’ve always thought of him as a bit of a tit, but there you go). In which case I think this is all a useful reminder of what I have argued for ages; that stated differences between right and left are overwhelmingly silly and pointless. For one thing, there was always the fact that while you could define the right as racist and the left as internationalist, you could also point to the right as being for free markets (and free movement of labour) while the left supports government intervention (including immigration controls). This is still a generalisation, however, and I prefer a simpler definition of the argument; that it is not between right and left, but between right and wrong.

Strip away the surrounding arguments and I think most people fall back into a default setting. Some start from the point of view that immigration is wrong; their liberalism, so to speak, comes from the practical, grudging acknowledgment that some newcomers may be required to push around hospital beds, or diagnose cancers, but really they are against immigration. On the other hand there are others who say that ideally anyone from anywhere can move to anyplace, that we should have full freedom of movement; that regrettably this is may not always be practical – for example, we may not currently be able to have totally open borders for people to emigrate to a country just to claim state benefit unless we are determined to bankrupt the country – but the onus should be on proving how a new immigrant can damage our economy. I know that you should respect others’ points of view, but in my opinion it is clear cut; the latter are right and the former wrong.

You may say that most people are somewhere in the middle, but at heart I think people fit into one of the two camps. Many may sound pro-immigration, arguing for greater numbers into this country; but if they stress the fact that it is simply for the good of our economy, and that immigration is in our gift rather than an inalienable right, then they fit into the first group. Meanwhile, some of the recent left wing converts to the anti-immigration line may lie in the latter group, that they support open borders in principle but genuinely feel recent immigrants are doing harm; but as with their right wing brethren their evidence seems more anecdotal than factual.

I don’t think there has ever been a time when some people haven’t said “okay, I’ll admit we’ve handled previous immigrants well, and they have contributed to society, but this time enough is enough, we can’t handle more, we are full up”. I suspect that following the accession of Romania and Bulgaria, if there are no restrictions placed on movement and when the British economy has failed to implode as a consequence, the arguments will move on to Turkey’s attempts to join the EU. However, I start from the viewpoint that a Manchurian and a Mancunian have exactly the same right to be allowed to live in Liverpool if they so wish; and if the debate is between right and wrong then I am happy to be on the right wing.

Update 28/8/06: My wife has just pointed out that the line “I prefer a simpler definition of the argument; that it is not between right and left, but between right and wrong” is a corny load of old toss worthy of Tony Blair; and I have to agree. Criticism noted. I will try not to do it again.

Update 12/11/06: Speaking on this morning’s Sunday AM, and discussing immigration, shadow home-secretary David Davies said “this isn’t actually about whether it’s right or left, it should be about whether it’s right or wrong”. I feel physically sick.